Global return value estimates of significant wave height and 10-m neutralwind speed are estimated from very large aggregations of archived ECMWFensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time from the period 2003-2012. The upperpercentiles are found to match ENVISAT wind speed better than ERA-Interim(ERA-I), which tends to be biased low. The return estimates are significantlyhigher for both wind speed and wave height in the extratropics and thesubtropics than what is found from ERA-I, but lower than what is reported byCaires and Sterl (2005) and Vinoth and Young (2011). The highest discrepanciesbetween ERA-I and ENS240 are found in the hurricane-prone areas, suggestingthat the ensemble comes closer than ERA-I in capturing the intensity oftropical cyclones. The width of the confidence intervals are typically reducedby 70% due to the size of the data sets. Finally, non-parametric estimates ofreturn values were computed from the tail of the distribution. These directreturn estimates compare very well with Generalized Pareto estimates.
展开▼
机译：全球极高的波高和10米中风风速的返回值估算值是根据2003-2012年+240小时提前期的ECMWFensemble预报的超大型汇总得出的。发现较高的百分位数比ERA-Interim（ERA-I）更好地匹配ENVISAT风速，后者倾向于偏低。在热带和副热带地区，风速和波高的回报估算值均明显高于ERA-1，但低于Caires和Sterl（2005）和Vinoth and Young（2011）的报告。在容易发生飓风的地区发现ERA-1与ENS240之间的最高差异，这表明在捕获热带气旋强度方面，该集合比ERA-1更近。由于数据集的大小，置信区间的宽度通常减少70％。最后，从分布的尾部计算返回值的非参数估计。这些直接收益估算值与广义帕累托估算值相比非常好。
展开▼
